An editorial note for 2013: what to watch so you are not discussing technology in a vacuum
How to connect AI, data, IT, security, and automation through the logic of the enterprise - and why that matters more than following each trend separately.
The last post of the year is a good place to stop and look not at individual trends, but at how they connect. Over the past few months this site has published several pieces - on data architecture, on the cloud, on streaming, on security, on conversational interfaces. Each was about a specific topic. But underneath all of them is a common question. A companion to this post is which 2012 predictions already look naive, and which are dangerously underestimated, and the argument that cloud, data, and security can no longer be discussed separately runs through much of what follows.
How can a manager or owner follow technology in a way that does not turn into an endless stream of news about products and platforms - but gives genuine orientation toward what matters for their business?
Why industry trends make poor navigation tools
The classic way to follow IT is to read about trends. "In 2013 the main themes are: cloud, mobility, big data, social technologies." This shapes a mental picture, but does not help with decisions.
The problem is that trends describe technologies, not business context. The cloud is useful for some tasks and excessive for others. Mobility changes some processes and does nothing to others. Big data makes sense at some volumes and becomes an expensive toy at others.
Without grounding in the actual logic of a business, technology trends are a map with no scale.
Five directions that will influence each other in 2013
I see five areas worth following - not separately, but as one system:
Data. Companies have accumulated enormous volumes of data across different systems. In 2013 the question is no longer "how to store it" but "how to make it manageable and usable." That is an organizational task, not only a technical one.
IT architecture. The cloud is changing the economics of infrastructure. The boundary between "owned" and "external" is becoming conditional. This creates new possibilities and new risks at the same time. Architectural decisions made in 2013 will define a company's flexibility for several years.
Security. The more systems and data move outside the perimeter, the weaker the traditional protection model of "we have a boundary, so it is safe inside." This is not a reason to avoid the cloud. It is a reason to think about security at the start of a project, not at the end.
Machine intelligence. While most companies are discussing the automation of individual operations, a more important question is quietly forming: where in the company's processes are decisions made based on data, and what will change when that layer begins to be automated? This is a long-range question, but the time to start thinking about it is now.
Robotics and the automation of physical processes. This still feels distant for most companies. But in manufacturing, logistics, and warehouse operations, the boundary between software control and physical execution is blurring. In a few years this will be an operational question, not a research one.
Why this is one system and not five trends
A company that moves data to the cloud (IT architecture) immediately confronts questions of security and data governance. A company that begins automating decisions based on data (machine intelligence) must ensure the data is clean and manageable enough to rely on. A company that automates physical operations generates streams of operational data that need to be collected and analyzed.
These topics do not develop in parallel. They develop as a connected system. A decision in one area creates consequences in another.
A practical filter for 2013
When you are making IT project decisions next year, I suggest asking yourself three questions:
- What business problem does this solve, and can it be stated without technical terms?
- What data is needed for this, and what state is that data in right now?
- What dependency will this decision create that will be hard to change in two years?
If each of these questions has a clear answer, the decision is probably sound. If not - it is worth slowing down.
Happy 2013.